While I am thinking...

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Sometimes the best ideas take decades to prove themselves right. I was just reflecting on a conversation I had over 20 years ago with my co-board member, Simon Papworth, where I made what seemed like a bold prediction at the time:

"Microsoft could never be as big or as fast as open source."

At the time, this seemed like a contrarian view. Microsoft was the undisputed king of software, dominating desktop computing and rapidly expanding into enterprise markets. Open source was still largely seen as a hobbyist movement - something for academics and enthusiasts, not serious business.

Fast Forward to Today

Recent developments in AI and technology have made this prediction feel remarkably prescient. Two particular articles caught my attention that validate this long-held belief:

Google and the AI Revolution

The first is from SemiAnalysis, discussing Google's position in the AI landscape. What's fascinating is how open source AI models and frameworks have become the foundation for innovation - not proprietary platforms from traditional tech giants.

Artificial Neurons Research

The second piece, from Oxford University, discusses breakthrough research in artificial neurons. This kind of fundamental research often emerges from open academic and collaborative environments - exactly the kind of ecosystem that open source fosters.

The Power of Collective Innovation

What I've observed over the past two decades is that the most significant technological breakthroughs come from collective intelligence and collaborative development. Open source doesn't just match the speed of proprietary development - it fundamentally operates on different principles:

  • Parallel development - Thousands of contributors working simultaneously
  • Rapid iteration - No corporate bureaucracy slowing decision-making
  • Diverse perspectives - Global contributors with different approaches
  • Transparent processes - Everyone can see and improve the work

Vindication in the AI Era

Today's AI landscape perfectly demonstrates this principle. While companies like Microsoft have made significant AI investments, the most groundbreaking developments often come from open research, collaborative models, and community-driven innovation.

The speed at which AI models evolve, improve, and spread through the open source community is breathtaking. No single company, regardless of size or resources, can match the collective intelligence of the global developer community.

Sometimes being right takes time. But when you're proven correct by the entire trajectory of technological development, it feels pretty good to say: "I told you so, Simon!"